After they returned to the playoffs last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs are team ripe for regression due to inflated percentages that typically dont carry over from one year to the next. As such, the appeal of some Leafs is likely lower than expected. Top Picks: In the last two seasons, RW Phil Kessel has 134 points, ranking fifth, and over the last five seasons his 155 goals ranks ninth. Even with plus-minus issues (minus-47 over the last four seasons), hes worth a spot among the top handful of fantasy right wingers. D Dion Phaneuf, the Leafs captain, has plenty of critics, but hes productive. In the last three years, hes one of three defencemen to have at least 100 points and 200 penalty minutes (Zdeno Chara and P.K. Subban are the others). If not PIMs, Phaneuf is also a hitter, with 725 over the last four seasons. There are constant questions about whether Phaneuf is worthy of being designated as a number one defenceman for the Maple Leafs, but his numbers indicate hes just fine as a No. 1 defenceman for fantasy owners. Value Plays: The popular notion, when it comes to C Nazem Kadri, is that hes a young player who scored 44 points in 48 games last season, so he should be on the rise, but its not quite as simple as that. For one thing, Kadri scored on 16.8% of his shots last season, an inordinately high percentage and, more importantly, those on the ice with him at even-strength scored on 14.44% of their shots, the highest rate for any forward in the league. Its also a clear indication that regression ought to be coming and even if Kadri plays more than the 16 minutes per game he played last season, the odds are in favour of the regression having stronger effect. This doesnt mean Kadri is a bad player; it means hes not necessarily a point-per-game player yet. While were beating that regression drum, LW Joffrey Lupul has 85 points in 82 games over the last two seasons, scoring on 15.5% of his shots, which is well above his career mark of 11.5%. As an example of what kind of effect that would have, knocking Lupuls shooting percentage down from 15.5% to 11.5% over the last two seasons, it would give him 28 goals instead of 36. We can also see that, even in his small sample of 17 games last season, Lupul had an absurdly high on-ice shooting percentage that is bound to come down. With regression and injuries both factors in his projection, Lupul likely comes in lower than expected in my projections. LW James van Riemsdyk had a nice first season in Toronto, his 0.67 points per game representing a career-high, while playing 19:12 per game, four minutes more than he had played the year before in Philadelphia. Its reasonable to expect further development from van Riemsdyk, whose career highs to this point are 21 goals and 40 points. The signing of RW David Clarkson came with much fanfare, and much concern regarding the length of his contract, but in the last two seasons, only Clarkson and Scott Hartnell have scored at least 40 goals while recording at least 200 penalty minutes. His limited scoring upside makes Clarkson a No. 4 fantasy winger, though he would move up a notch in leagues that include penalty minutes. Still trying to negotiate a new contract, restricted free agent D Cody Franson had a breakthrough season for the Leafs in 2013, tying a career-high with 29 points, even though he played in only 45 games. If hes healthy and signed, Franson has a chance to be a No. 3 fantasy defenceman, but until he signs, its tough to place too much stock in his production. Centering Phil Kessel is a factor that makes C Tyler Bozak worth keeping an eye on, but he hasnt been productive enough to have fantasy value in most leagues. He was one of six forward to play more than 900 minutes last season and finish with fewer than 30 points. Sleepers/Breakthrough: Stuck in the minors or the press box too often last season, D Jake Gardiner is a tremendous skater who should play a top-four role. He had 30 points in 75 games as a rookie in 2011-2012 and should be able to get back to that level provided he stays healthy. By going out to acquire G Jonathan Bernier, and then signing him to a new contract that isnt for backup money, the Maple Leafs have indicated their intention coming into the season. While there are many reports from those that think Bernier is due the opportunity to be a starting goalie in the league, he has a .912 save percentage in 62 career games, which only seems okay. If you really want to dig deep, check out D Paul Ranger, making his return to the NHL for the first time since October, 2009. Ranger scored a career-high 31 points, while playing a career-high 25:13, in 2007-2008 Rookies: He may end up back in junior for another season, but 19-year-old Morgan Rielly could put pressure on the Leafs to make a decision. When he reaches the league for keeps, hes going to produce points, but even if Rielly does manage to stay in the NHL as a teen. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. NFL Jerseys For Sale . In a series of tweets, it is explained by the Department of Player Safety that Niederreiter makes full body contact with Burrows and although there is head contact, he does not "pick" the head in the course of making the hit. Cheap China Jerseys . 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Logan Couture and Justin Braun each had a goal and an assist and Tommy Wingels supplied two helpers for San Jose, which received 33 saves from Antti Niemi. Mark Giordano and Johnny Gaudreau each scored for the Flames, who had their four-game winning streak halted. Karri Ramo stopped 27-of-30 shots in defeat. The Sharks went ahead with 9:18 remaining as Coutures pass attempt from behind the net was deflected by the stick of a Flames defender and landed in the crease, where Marleau whacked it home for a 3-2 lead. Calgary went on the power play with 1:19 to go and pulled Ramo for a 6-on-4 advantage. The Flames got shots on net, but Niemi stood tall as San Jose held on for the win. Giordano stepped into David Jones pass from the left circle and blasted a shot from the point past a screened Niemi for the games opening marker with 2:28 to play in the first period.dddddddddddd Braun pounced on a loose puck at the right circle and tied the game with a backhander 33 seconds into the middle stanza. San Jose took a 2-1 lead after Couture gathered the puck and moved it from his forehand to backhand before snapping a shot past Ramo. Niemi extended his pad to deny Gaudreau of a tip-in, but the electrifying rookie took the loose puck in the crease and tapped it into the net for a tied game with 2:11 to play in the second. Game Notes Couture now has 19 points in 17 career games against the Flames ... Wingels and Marleau have both registered a point in four straight games ... San Jose is now 6-0-0 with forward Mike Brown in the lineup ... Sharks forward Tyler Kennedy left with an injury early in the first period ... The Flames entered the game with three straight wins against the Sharks. ' ' '